SPY market signals
Last updated 2026-09-22 · US market close
Hourly updates during US market hours · Full adjusted-price refresh after the close
SPY price, standard deviation and historical returns
Review the latest SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) price, correction and standard-deviation-based lower-price zone using weekly ETF data. Signal A combines statistical price zones with market prerequisites; its proximity is not a profit probability. Compare historical returns one month to two years after Signal A and Signal B.
Signals are evaluated using the candle low. Once triggered, a signal remains recorded even if the price rebounds and the candle closes higher.
Signal A is statistics-based, while Signal B is price-action-based.
How to read relative strength
Relative strength shows whether this ETF is stronger or weaker than the selected benchmark, SPY or RSP. Above the dashed 1.0 line means stronger; below it means weaker. An upward break above 1.0 during a market decline or rebound can be meaningful as a shift toward relative strength. Holding above 1.0 or rising first during a rebound may also indicate relative leadership. It is not a buy signal and does not predict future returns.
Signal A historical performance
Tracks statistically lower market-price zones. chart marker A.
| Period | Average return | Median | Average max gain | Average time to peak | Positive-return rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.6% | +5.3% | +8.7% | 3 wk | 78% | 27 |
| 3 months | +4.5% | +5.8% | +14.3% | 8.6 wk | 70% | 27 |
| 6 months | +4.3% | +2.3% | +17.4% | 12.7 wk | 59% | 27 |
| 1 year | +13.6% | +19.1% | +24.6% | 34.3 wk | 67% | 27 |
| 18 months | +20.2% | +25.1% | +33.2% | 48.8 wk | 62% | 26 |
| 2 years | +26% | +32.6% | +39.2% | 64.7 wk | 65% | 26 |
Signal A signal history
Signals from the last 10 years are shown by default.
| Signal date | Base price | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year | 18 months | 2 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-17 | $214.79 | +10.7% | +16.53% | +23.28% | +35.77% | +32% | +59.2% |
| 2018-12-24 | $221.08 | +7.28% | +14.52% | +19.36% | +32.78% | +24.68% | +54.59% |
| 2020-03-09 | $244.88 | +3.9% | +13.62% | +25.32% | +49.05% | +69.59% | +61.01% |
| 2020-03-16 | $209.26 | +25.28% | +35.49% | +45.73% | +72.96% | +97.28% | +100% |
| 2020-03-23 | $231.78 | +11.66% | +18.92% | +30.81% | +58.76% | +79.13% | +83.89% |
| 2022-05-09 | $378.22 | -2.97% | +6.78% | +0.04% | +4.19% | +12.35% | +33.76% |
| 2022-06-13 | $345.95 | +5.27% | +5.82% | +5.67% | +22.08% | +31.37% | +52.4% |
| 2025-04-07 | $525.23 | +5.69% | +17.14% | +23% | +28.71% | Current +47.27% · Peak +48.02% | Current +47.27% · Peak +48.02% |