SMH market signals
Last updated 2026-09-22 · US market close
Hourly updates during US market hours · Full adjusted-price refresh after the close
SMH price, standard deviation and historical returns
Review the latest SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) price, correction and standard-deviation-based lower-price zone using weekly ETF data. Signal A combines statistical price zones with market prerequisites; its proximity is not a profit probability. Compare historical returns one month to two years after Signal A and Signal B.
Signals are evaluated using the candle low. Once triggered, a signal remains recorded even if the price rebounds and the candle closes higher.
Signal A is statistics-based, while Signal B is price-action-based.
How to read relative strength
Relative strength shows whether this ETF is stronger or weaker than the selected benchmark, SPY or RSP. Above the dashed 1.0 line means stronger; below it means weaker. An upward break above 1.0 during a market decline or rebound can be meaningful as a shift toward relative strength. Holding above 1.0 or rising first during a rebound may also indicate relative leadership. It is not a buy signal and does not predict future returns.
Signal A historical performance
Tracks statistically lower market-price zones. chart marker A.
| Period | Average return | Median | Average max gain | Average time to peak | Positive-return rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.2% | +2.4% | +10.9% | 2.6 wk | 61% | 23 |
| 3 months | +4.8% | +4.8% | +17.9% | 7.7 wk | 61% | 23 |
| 6 months | +13.2% | +4.7% | +28.4% | 14.5 wk | 65% | 23 |
| 1 year | +34.4% | +37.6% | +50.4% | 40.3 wk | 70% | 23 |
| 18 months | +45.3% | +52.2% | +60.6% | 62.8 wk | 81% | 21 |
| 2 years | +69.5% | +55.3% | +86% | 78.6 wk | 76% | 21 |
Signal A signal history
Signals from the last 10 years are shown by default.
| Signal date | Base price | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 1 year | 18 months | 2 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-22 | $41.76 | +1.39% | +10.11% | +31.62% | +44.37% | +52.16% | +112.25% |
| 2018-10-29 | $44.9 | +0.35% | +3.41% | +24.21% | +37.56% | +36.74% | +87.73% |
| 2018-12-24 | $41.22 | +11.56% | +22.43% | +26.86% | +66.26% | +72.58% | +152.87% |
| 2020-03-16 | $48.69 | +30.72% | +49.21% | +66.51% | +132.84% | +170.03% | +169.66% |
| 2022-06-13 | $100.3 | +4.44% | -0.85% | +3.86% | +50.86% | +71.22% | +165.08% |
| 2022-06-27 | $95.59 | +21.01% | -5.55% | +4.72% | +57.13% | +81.56% | +170.68% |
| 2022-10-10 | $84.45 | +27.52% | +31.88% | +47.24% | +73.34% | +159.35% | +201.67% |
| 2025-03-31 | $180.24 | +21.14% | +56.87% | +86.22% | +117.67% | Current +230.69% · Peak +272.74% | Current +230.69% · Peak +272.74% |
| 2025-04-07 | $200.69 | +10.97% | +42.81% | +61.61% | +117.69% | Current +197% · Peak +234.77% | Current +197% · Peak +234.77% |